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Análisis geoestadístico de la evolución temporal de los páramos de la microcuenca del río Cebadas, mediante el Índice de Vegetación de Diferencia Normalizado (NDVI) y su relación con la precipitación
Resumen
Los páramos andinos son ecosistemas de gran altitud con una biodiversidad única y diversos servicios ecosistémicos importantes. Albergan especies endémicas y además desempeñan un papel significativo en el secuestro de carbono y la regulación hídrica; estudios recientes hacen uso de la teledetección para monitorear los páramos con resultados en menor tiempo y costo. La investigación se ejecutó en la microcuenca del río Cebadas y se utilizaron dos imágenes MOD13A1.061 Terra Vegetation Índices del satélite Terra de la NASA para analizar los cambios en la cobertura vegetal durante un año, comparando NDVI de marzo 2023 y marzo 2024. La precipitación se obtuvo de la base de datos WorldClim Global Climate versión 2.0 Data, con una resolución de 30 segundos. Las imágenes fueron procesadas y clasificadas usando QGIS, reclasificando en 4 clases y transformando los productos a polígonos. Se crearon mallas de 500x500 metros para extraer puntos georreferenciados. Se realizó un análisis de autocorrelación espacial con el índice de Moran y el High/Low Clustering (Getis-Ord General G). Finalmente, se aplicó la correlación de Spearman para analizar la relación entre NDVI y precipitación.
Se determinó que, en 2023, los valores bajos de NDVI se concentraron al noreste y sureste de Cebadas, reduciéndose en 2024 en un 86.7%. Los valores medios de NDVI se redujeron en un 24.8%, concentrándose al sur de Cebadas y al norte de Achupallas en 2024. Los valores altos de NDVI aumentaron un 159.8%, concentrándose al noroeste de Cebadas. Los valores muy altos de NDVI disminuyeron en un 29.1%. La prueba de Spearman mostró una relación inversa significativa entre NDVI y precipitación. El análisis de Moran indicó una distribución agregada para precipitación y NDVI, mientras que el análisis High/Low Clustering mostró patrones significativos de agrupación de valores altos.
La microcuenca mostró una notable disminución en áreas con bajos valores de NDVI y un aumento en áreas con altos valores de NDVI, sugiriendo mejoras en la cobertura vegetal. Los análisis espaciales revelaron patrones agregados en la distribución de precipitación y NDVI. Se encontró una relación inversa significativa entre NDVI y precipitación, destacando la compleja dinámica de estos ecosistemas.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.23857/pc.v9i6.7475
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